The mood has been a unrelenting musical theme of Game of Thrones ever since Ned Stark ( remember him ? ) told us “ winter is coming ” back at the offset of season one . The Warden of the North was referring , of course , to the anticipated geological fault in Westerosi weather from a long summer to a brutal wintertime that can last for many years .
An unusual or change climate is a big deal . George R R Martin ’s earth bearsmany similaritiesto Medieval Europe , where commute to the climate mold social and economic developments through impacts on water resourcefulness , harvest development and the potential for famine .
We ’re interested in whether Westeros ’s mood science adds up , given what we ’ve learned about how these thing work here on Earth .
It ’s not easy to interpret the mechanism driving the climate system of rules pass on we ca n’t climb into the Game of Thrones universe and take measuring ourselves . It ’s intemperate enough to get an exact picture of what ’s drive the Earth ’s climate even with many grand of thermometers , buoys and orbiter readings all plugging data into New supercomputers – a few old maesters communicate by raven are bind to shinny .
The primal difference between our domain and that of Westeros is of course the mien of seasons . Here on Earth , season are make by the planet orbiting around the sun , which incessantly bombards us with sunshine . However the amount of sunlight received is not the same throughout the year .
If you guess the Earth with a long magnetic pole through its centre ( with the top and bottom of the pole essentially the North and South Pole ) and then tilt that by 23.5 degrees , the amount of sunshine get in the northerly and Southern Hemispheres will change throughout the class as the Earth orbits the Sun .
Clearly the unnamed major planet on which Game of Thrones is set is missing this axis lean – or some other crucial part of Earth ’s climate scheme .
How longer seasons might work
The simplest explanation could be connect to spacial fluctuations in solar radioactivity ( sunlight ) receive at the surface . A simplification in incoming solar radiation would mean more snow and ice probably remaining on the ground during the summer in Westeros ’s far northward . liken to the more absorbent soil or rock , snow ruminate more of the Sun ’s energy back out to space where in issue it can not warm the Earth‘s surface . So more snow lead to a cooler planet , which means more snow cover on antecedently coke - free regions , and so on . This process is known as thesnow albedo feedback .
The collapse of enceinte ice sheetsnorth of the Wallcould also apace destabilise ocean circulation , reducing northward hotness transferral and leading to the intrusion of C. P. Snow and ice southwards towards King ’s Landing .
To descend into icy condition would require a large drop-off in solar radiation receive at sure location on the Earth ’s surface and likewise an increment would be needed to return to warmer conditions .
This is around what happened during the switches between “ glacial ” and “ interglacial ” ( milder ) condition throughout the retiring million years on Earth . This is controlled primarily by unlike orbital configurations known as “ Milankovitch bike ” , which bear upon the seasonality and locating of sunlight received on Earth .
However , these cycles are on the order of 23,000 to 100,000 years , whereas Game of Thrones seemingly has much shorter cycle per second of a decade or less .
When winter came back
Around 12,900 years ago there was a much more abrupt mood chemise , known as theYounger Dryas , when a spell of near - glacial conditions interrupt a period of gradual rewarming after the last ice age peaked 21,000 eld ago . The sudden thaw at the end of this frigid spell pass in a issue of decades – a blinking of an oculus in geological terms – and led to the warm , interglacial conditions we still have today .
Variousdifferent theorieshave test to excuse why this spike occurred , let in the sudden injection of freshwater into the North Atlantic from the outburst ofNorth American glacial lake , in answer to the deglaciation , which destabilised sea circulation by freshening the water and reducing ocean passion transport to the North Atlantic Ocean , cool the regional climate .
Less likely explanations include shifts in the jet stream , volcanic blast blocking out the sun , or even anasteroid impingement .
The shift from the Medieval Warm Period to the fiddling Ice Age that begin around 1300 AD represents a more late , and more pernicious , example of a “ quick ” mood modification . Although the overall temperature change was n’t too grave – a northerly Hemisphere decrease of around 1˚C compared with today – it was enough to stimulate much harsher winter in Northern Europe .
None of these events suggest the sharp transitions from long summers to foresightful winters as described in Game of Thrones – and they still all happen on a much retentive timescale than a Westeros winter . However they do demonstrate how extreme climate shift are potential even on geologically short timescales .
Regardless of the causes of the prospicient and fickle season , wintertime in Westeros wo n’t be much fun . It may even make the struggle for the Iron Throne between the various factions seem irrelevant .
Indeed the House of Stark ’s motto : “ winter is coming ” may have a lesson for us here on Earth . Anthropogenic climate change is one of the big challenges facing humankind today and if left unmitigated the potential environmental impact on society may be far greater than any global recession . block off worrying about the Iron Throne , everyone , winter is coming .
Alex Farnsworthis Postdoctoral Research Assistant in Climatology atUniversity of Bristol . Emma Stoneis Research Associate in Climate History atUniversity of Bristol .
This clause was originally publish onThe Conversation . scan theoriginal clause .
range of a function by HBO .
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