On September 24 , 2182 , a relatively large blank rock has a 0.037 % chance of doss down onto the surface of Earth . Although the chance of impact are slim , Bennu is still one of the most potentially risky known asteroids in our solar scheme , and we need to be prepared for what could come . A first - of - its - kind study simulated the planet - wide damage that would be induce by Bennu ’s unconvincing impact , leading to a sudden onset of wintertime and global food dearth .
A radical of researchers base in South Korea draw up scenario designate how Earth ’s climate and life on our planet would be affect by the impact of a intermediate - sized asteroid like Bennu . The squad found that such an impact would stimulate massive disruptions that could last up to three or four years . In the most intense scenario the team described , several hundred million tons of junk would importantly reduce the sunlight that reaches Earth ’s surface , do temperature to overleap around the man and involve how industrial plant raise on Earth . The researchers published theirstudy , which is the first to simulate Earth ’s climate after an asteroid impact , inScience Advances .
Bennu is a relatively small near - Earth asteroid that makes a faithful strait to Earth every six years or so . Scientists believe the blank rock may have broken off from a much tumid atomic number 6 - ample asteroid about 700 million to 2 billion years ago and gradually roam closer to Earth . The asteroid was the subject of a historic NASA delegation , OSIRIS - male monarch , whichsnagged a firearm of Bennu in October 2020and dribble it off on Earth in September 2023 . The commission allowed scientists to probe the ancient rock up - airless , revealing thatBennu contains some of the crucial building blocks of life .
An illustration of asteroid Bennu.NASA/JPL-Caltech
An shock from Bennu would be very destructive , but Earth has assure worse . Around 66 million years ago , an asteroid that was some 6 miles wide ( 10 kilometers across ) struck Earth , killing mostof its early inhabitants , including the dinosaurs . compare to Bennu , which is about 0.3 land mile ( 0.5 km ) wide , the dinosaur - kill asteroid was massive . intermediate - sized asteroids like Bennu are more uncouth in the solar system .
“ On average , medium - sized asteroid collide with Earth about every 100–200 thousand years,”Axel Timmermann , music director of the IBS Center for Climate Physics ( ICCP ) at Pusan National University in South Korea , and cobalt - author of the study , state in an emailed statement . “ This means that our early human antecedent may have have some of these major planet - shifting effect before with possible encroachment on human phylogenesis and even our own genetic makeup . ”
To determine the impact of Bennu strike our planet in 157 years from now , the discipline authors modeled an idealized collision scenario of a medium - sized asteroid on world — idealize being used here as a statistical term , as the scenario is obviously very far from idealistic .
A graphic showing the damage caused by asteroids of different sizes. Graphic: NASA
The hit would inject 100 million to 400 million tons of dust into the upper atmosphere , the squad conclude , affect the spherical climate , atmospherical chemistry , and photosynthesis of telluric plants , as well as plankton in the ocean .
The most striking outcome of a Bennu - same asteroid hit would be the voluminous amounts of rubble that would haze over the atm , resulting inthe dimming of light from the Sun . ( A different teamposited a similar scenariofor the aftermath of the Chicxulub asteroid wallop that doomed the dinosaur . )
The Sun ’s dimming could cause globular surface cooling of up to 7 level Fahrenheit ( 4 degrees Celsius ) , a 15 % drop in rainfall , and severe depletion of the ozone layer by about 32 % , according to the written report .
Ejecta streaming from Dimorphos about a day after the DART impact. Image: NASA, ESA, STScI, J. Li (PSI)
“ The precipitous impact wintertime would leave unfavorable climate condition for plant life to develop , leading to an initial 20–30 % reducing of photosynthesis in sublunar and nautical ecosystems , ” Lan Dai , a investigator at the ICCP and lead author of the field of study , said in a program line . “ This would in all probability cause monumental disruptions in ball-shaped food for thought security . ”
It ’s not all bad word , though . Beneath the airfoil of the sea , iron from the asteroid could blast into the stratosphere following the shock and settle in part of Earth ’s sea , triggering unprecedented blooms of silicate - racy algae . Plankton in the ocean would also recuperate around six months after the hit , as opposed to two to three old age for tellurian plants , and its ontogeny rates would increase to higher stage compare to before the asteroid impact , accord to the work .
“ We were able to track this unexpected reception to the iron denseness in the junk , ” Timmermann suppose . “ The simulated excessive phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms might be a blessing for the biosphere and may help facilitate emerge food insecurity relate to the longer - lasting reduction in terrestrial productivity . ”
As unlikely as an impact from Bennu is , researchers are determined to put Earth ’s destiny unwaveringly in Earthlings ’ hands . NASA ’s successfulDouble Asteroid Redirection Test ( DART)in September 2022 turn out humankind ’s ability to change the flight of an asteroid , an immeasurably important whole step in proving out our ability to defend the planet from bouldery interlopers from quad .
And besides , there are more quick Pisces to fry . The recently discoveredasteroid 2024 YR4has a 1.9 % chance ( 1 - in-53 odds ) of impacting Earth in 2032 . Hopefully , the recent squad ’s pretence never come to excrete — if not thanks to fortune , than to humankind ’s ingeniousness and determination in aspect of a common scourge .
asteroidsbennupotentially hazardous asteroid
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